Monday, September 30, 2013

My Quarter End: Q3 2013

As of September 30th, 2013 our net worth stands at $326,989.01

Now this is shaping up to be some kind of year! For this quarter end piece I’ll jump right into my technical analysis and leave the personal stuff for the end, because yes this past quarter was just that fascinating to me. Typically Q3 is mundane, if not a losing season. Traditionally trading volume thins down and M&A news barely makes headlines as the market takes a sleep off before the start of Q4.

This year’s version of Q3 was nothing short of remarkable to me. Not only did the overall market stay above its July 1st figure of 14,976.96, but the market also stood strong against negative domestic and international news.

The most noteworthy of these was/is the weapons standoff between Syria and the Western world. Now I’m not going to get into the international politics of this touchy issue, for that you can go to just about any major news outlet, but I am genuinely astonished that this world event during the summer quarter did not significantly impact the stock market in a negative way. Sure, commodities bounced around like they always do but the confidence in the market place to sustain through this world event is a testament that, as a group, our businesses are regaining their footing from the market fall out that was 5 years ago.

In addition our brilliant elected leaders in D.C. are at it again with another debt ceiling debate. Government shutdown looms around the corner (to which I vote an enthusiastic YES!!!) and the elephants and jackasses are standing in their respective extreme corners refusing to compromise. Yet in the midst of all of this the fear of these events are not negatively impacting the overall market. Even gold surprised me as at the start of the quarter it hovered slightly above $1,550 an ounce, only to drop in price amidst all of this negative news to fall to below $1,350 an ounce.

Now if you were to tell me at the start of the July that the US government would be facing another debt ceiling crisis, another mass shooting would occur on US soil, a weapons standoff would occur between the US, Syria and Russia and gold would plummet $200 and the DOW would be up from July 1st, I would have laughed at the absurdity of your assertion. Instead I am taking this all in and seeing it as proof that the market is gaining strength and stability.

I whole heartedly expect Q4 to go off without a hitch and for 2013 to be looked back on as one of the best years in the stock market’s history. Forward looking though I do expect averages to come back in line and I do see a retraction on the horizon for 2014. Mainly I expect this retraction to single handedly be due to the ongoing implementation of Obamacare. This piece of legislation, whether you love it or hate it, is bringing a wide range of uncertainty to the market place and is single handedly a prime example of government stepping into a private industry and telling companies how to run their businesses. For better or worse I believe this will have a negative impact on the market that will rein in the market rise of 2013.

On a personal level I’m also pretty surprised that our net worth number stands where it is. In retrospect I felt like we took a pretty expensive vacation to Europe, but the lift of the equities market just offset and helped raise our overall financial picture. I was surprised that over this last quarter my sliver of real estate took about a $3,000 appraised value nosedive. But I guess that just means that sooner rather than later our equity holdings will surpass the value of my sliver of real estate. And I’m perfectly okay with that :) It’s a pivotal moment that I’m looking forward to crossing and of course share with all of you.

During this past quarter I also reached a bit of a hinge moment. With our European vacation being a catalyst, I am now starting to enjoy the fruits our labor and am enjoying saving, giving AND spending on levels that I have not reached before. Our household has re-evaluated the size of our spending cups, we are pushing on with the long term saving goals of paying cash for our first house and having a healthy retirement, and we have increased our resources to do more spontaneous giving throughout the year.

Needless to say I learned a lot this summer and am slowly starting to thoroughly enjoy every aspect of life. I can’t wait to see how the rest of this year shakes out and what 2014 has in store for our household J!

No comments:

Post a Comment