I must say that I am thoroughly excited for this quarter
end. Numbers aside, I’ve been looking forward to writing this piece and putting
my nerd hat back on. A lot of my posts this past quarter have been more
personal than in the past and it’s nice once in a while to geek out once in a
while with market assessments. So let’s get to it.
This past quarter was one of the best I’ve seen during my
five year investing history. The DOW pretty much shot through the roof and made
me look absolutely stupid in the process J.
I expected the results of the US fiscal cliff would sink the market, but the
market’s strength and resilience against the recklessness in Washington
absolutely amazed me. In general there was some M&A action, ongoing
government inefficiency, some stagnant job reports and a slight uptick in
consumer confidence. So in my humble
opinion news headlines did not drive the market up. I genuinely feel that this
uptick in market valuations is indeed genuine. As our politicians squabble and
our citizens are choosing whether or not to change their family trees, I
believe that by and large, U.S. companies are positioning themselves in the
strongest way possible to plan long term growth and sustain the short term
uncertainty surrounding our current economic environment. To me that is the
fundamental basis for the S&P and DOW being at/near record level highs.
But at the end of the day you are probably asking yourself
what does it all mean and where is the market going? I expect that with the
modest uptick in consumer confidence and what should be a steady earnings
reporting season that the start of Q2 should see an uptick in value across the
broad market. But beyond that I see a pullback by the time the summer season
starts. Not because the market is overvalued, but because over the history of
the market two things are generally guaranteed during the summer months: low
trading volume and a marginal decline in value. It’s just what has come with
the territory historically.
So for investors like me that invest for the long term you
probably already know what I’m going to say. Over the next decade the market
will continue to gain in value and the sky is not going to cave in on itself. I
am continuing to steadily invest in my small army of mutual funds every month
without a second thought. Steady investing in solid investments over a long
period of time will always keep your money ahead of taxes and inflation. But
for the short term, as with the fiscal cliff fiasco, I have no clue where it’s
going to go. I do know that the market will go up and it will go down. But over
long periods of time the market grows more than it retracts, that’s just what
history has shown us. So I beg you, if you know of anyone that tries to time
the market or is looking for a short term gain through investing, pass to them
these immortal words from Dave Ramsey, “The only people who get hurt on a
rollercoaster, are the ones that jump off.”
As for me, well this past quarter was surprisingly
prosperous for us as we crossed the $300,000 mark to land our Q1 2013 net worth
total at $304,339.06. I say surprisingly because this past quarter our
household gave away more money than we ever have within any single quarter. And
looking back on it I have to honestly say that these gifts were some of the
best decisions I think I have ever made with money. We gave meaningful gifts
that I think impacted and helped individuals and families change their lives,
and we genuinely feel that our church is being a wonderful steward of the
resources provided by the congregation. In return I personally felt an
overwhelming sense of peace and love that even my best mutual fund couldn’t out
earn. Frankly I’m surprised and amazed at how creative we’ve been when it comes
to finding ways to give. But I am finding myself speechless at describing how our
net worth increased by that much with all of this giving going on. As a
Christian I believe that when you give you will receive love and peace in your
heart, but I kind of didn’t really believe that I would prosper financially
through giving, so I guess this past quarter was God’s way of proving it to me.
Q1 was indeed an excellent start to 2013 and the methods to
my madness will remain the same as I roll on towards $1 million. So happy
reading and merry Q2 to everyone out there!